From a domestic perspective, the expectation of traditional demand recovery is undoubtedly an important entry point. According to historical data, the downstream demand characteristics will become more prominent after the Spring Festival. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February, market demand has been completely stagnant throughout the entire month of February. Based on previous years' experience, downstream demand is expected to show a slow recovery trend after the 15th day of the first lunar month. Generally speaking, after the first lunar month, downstream demand stability will be fully reflected, especially considering that the social inventory level after this year's holiday is significantly lower than in previous years, In addition, due to the concentrated bearish sentiment in the market before the Spring Festival, the probability of demand driven market activation after the holiday will be higher.
At the same time, by observing the production and sales activities of petrochemical enterprises as well as the traditional pattern of refined oil exports, it is expected that domestic refined oil export activities will be realized from March to April, and the oil adjustment activities during this period may be more active. Due to the different inventory levels and production and sales activities of production enterprises, the export volume of petrochemical enterprises may be significantly reduced due to prioritizing the completion of refined oil production tasks, This will further improve the domestic supply and demand relationship.
So, with the expectation of maintaining good overall stability of crude oil after the end of January, the domestic toluene market is expected to usher in a demand based market, and the sustainability of the market depends more on the guidance of macroeconomic policies.